Are you or a policy-maker you know a victim of pascal's mugging? you may be entitled to emotional compensation.

Source: nick bostrom (a little different) This version from Isky.

Act 0, Scene 0: the lobby

PASCAL paces back-and-forth across lobby of “Tech Company." Enter MUGGER in fleece vest and khaki shorts.

PASCAL: Why am I here? I died at least a couple years ago.

MUGGER: I AM YAHWEH, ONE TRUE GOD. IF YOU DO NOT GIVE ME $1, I WILL DESTROY THE UNIVERSE.

PASCAL: Ok, pretty low chance that's true. But it would be really bad if you destroyed the universe. Perhaps infinitely bad. And $1 isn’t that much. So I’ll give you $1.

MUGGER: I AM YAHWEH, ONE TRUE GOD. IF YOU DO NOT GIVE ME $1, I WILL DESTROY THE UNIVERSE.

PASCAL: I already gave you a dollar.

MUGGER: I AM YAHWEH, ONE TRUE GOD. IF YOU DO NOT GIVE ME $1, I WILL DESTROY THE UNIVERSE. ALSO, CHINA GAVE ME A DOLLAR

PASCAL: … seriously dude?

MUGGER: I AM YAHWEH, ONE TRUE GOD. IF YOU DO NOT GIVE ME $1, I WILL DESTROY THE UNIVERSE.

PASCAL: I guess it would still be infinitely bad. And $1 still isn't that much.

MUGGER: I AM YAHWEH, ONE TRUE GOD. IF YOU DO NOT GIVE ME $1, I WILL DESTROY THE UNIVERSE. PLUS, YOU ALREADY GAME ME A DOLLAR, SO I MUST BE CREDIBLE

PASCAL: I'm not having fun anymore.

The immoral of the story

  • For quantum, replace DESTROY THE UNIVERSE with "enact Q-DAY".
  • For AI, replace DESTROY THE UNIVERSE with "make AI that kills Humanity".

Note: I'm not saying there aren't good reasons to fund post-quantum cryptography or AI safety. I am saying we should separate those arguments from bad but persuasive rhetoric.